"Low Hire, Low Fire": Why Your Search Feels Slower Than the News Sounds
If the economy sounds fine but your job search doesn't feel fine, you're not misreading things. Indeed's Hiring Lab, led by Dr. Svenja Gudell, has a name for this market: "low hire, low fire." Their 2026 Jobs & Hiring Trends Report lays it out.
The short version: employers aren't cutting staff, but they aren't adding much either. Job postings slid through 2025, from more than 10% above pre-pandemic levels down to barely above them. Layoffs stayed low throughout.
Why "low fire" doesn't help you
Low layoffs are great news if you already have a job. If you're looking, they're neutral at best — a job that nobody leaves is a job that never opens. Most hiring happens because someone moved on, and in a low-fire market, fewer people move.
That's why the unemployment rate can look healthy while your search takes months. Both things are true at once.
Health care is carrying the market
The report's most striking number: health care is about 11% of employment but accounted for nearly three-quarters of net job growth in 2025. An aging population keeps that demand coming regardless of what the rest of the economy does.
Meanwhile white-collar work — tech, media, professional services — sits well below pre-pandemic posting levels, still working off the hiring binge of a few years ago.
The practical move, if you're able: look at health care employers even for non-clinical roles. Hospitals and health systems hire accountants, schedulers, IT staff, facilities crews and administrative assistants. Medical assistant and registered nurse roles are the front door, but they aren't the only one.
Where you search matters as much as what
Hiring Lab found that large metros tied to tech or government are hovering at or below pre-pandemic posting levels, while smaller and mid-sized metros — especially across the South and Mountain West — have held up much better.
If you can move, or work remotely for an employer located elsewhere, that gap is worth real money. Try searching a few mid-sized markets like Phoenix, San Antonio or Denver against the big coastal metros and compare what comes back.
Wages have stopped outrunning prices
Wage growth has slowed to roughly 2.5% a year. For the first time in a while, inflation is running ahead of raises, which means real purchasing power is slipping even for people whose pay went up.
Two consequences for job seekers:
- A lateral move at the same salary is a pay cut in practical terms. Price your next role accordingly.
- The offer is where the money is. In a year of small raises, the jump you negotiate at hire is likely to be the biggest one you get. Our salary negotiation guide is worth ten minutes before your next call.
What to do with all this
Low-hire markets reward persistence and breadth over precision. Apply to more roles than feels natural, treat industries rather than titles as the thing you're flexible about, and expect the process to take longer than it would have three years ago. None of that is a reflection of you — it's the shape of the market you're searching in.
Source: Indeed Hiring Lab, 2026 U.S. Jobs & Hiring Trends Report, Dr. Svenja Gudell, published December 2025.